Syria – the next government to go in the Middle East

The trickiness about Syria is that it is a secular state. In fact, one of the most secular states in the region. So if the government of Bashar Assad is overthrown, Islamists are likely to take over eventually. Therefore, direct involvement of the West in Syria would likely be counterproductive, but complete complacency would also be a shortsighted strategy.

However, Syrian government is probably doomed, since it started to kill civilians in large numbers, but the protests did not subside. This probably means that the Syrians are fed up with their government to the extent that are prepared to die in order to get rid of Assad.

While initially Assad managed to keep distance from the government agencies’ crackdown on the protesters. As the time goes by, he is likely to be held responsible for everything, as he should be. If my earlier report on Libya is correct, then it is likely that Syria will experience serious western pressure, including possible air/drone strikes. Ultimately whether the Syrian government goes or stays depends on the Syrians themselves and to less extent to the West’s ability to communicate clear and credible messages to the Syrian government on non-use of crude force against its own population.

One thought on “Syria – the next government to go in the Middle East

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