What the explosions in the Moscow metro mean

North Caucasus rebels are the most likely perpetrators of the attack in the Moscow metro on March 29. It looks, the security services had prior knowledge of the coming attacks, despite that they did not alert the public and failed to intercept several people, that presumably prepared and carried out the attack.

This attack spell trouble for the Russian security services, that evolved good skills in depriving businessmen of their property, political persecutions, but grew unused to fulfilling their primary responsibilities. It is obvious the services should drastically be reformed. New set of policies must be worked out and implemented in the North Caucasus, that would give political freedoms and provide an appropriate legal framework with proper enforcement of the laws. Open up the region to the international developmental agencies.

In practice, however, hopes are slim, the inhabitants of the Kremlin will do something sensible. Instead, more liberal approach to the North Caucasus problems that started forming last year might be dumped. Mass persecutions of the people with the Caucasus origins might strengthen and number of exemplary killings might take place in the North Caucasus. In addition some kind of a reform, that would further limit civil rights may be introduced.

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