2 March 2008 Russian Federation holds presidential elections. President Putin is stepping down and his “hand-picked” successor Dmitri Medvedev is absolutely certain to win the elections amidst wide spread acknowledgement of the elections’ unfairness.
President Putin announced his decision to see Dmitry Medvedev, vice-PM, inherit presidential position. Next day after this announcement, Medvedev stated, he would choose Putin as PM, if he were to win presidential elections. It was more than an exchange of kind notes. If Putin is to become Russia’ PM, he is almost certain to remain leading political figure and principal decision-maker in Russia. According to Putin’s recent remarks he plans to fulfill his plan (which has popularly been hailed as “Putin’s plan – victory for Russia”, but no one really knows what it is about) until 2020.
So if Putin nominally steps down from president’s position, but in reality keeps power in his hands, it will mean nothing less, than creeeping coup d’etat. Indeed, it will contradict Russian constitution that stipulates the president as head of the state, not the PM. At the same time if after Medvedev’s inauguration in May Putin is not appointed as PM or shortly after his appointment dismissed, it will mean that Medvedev broke the rules of the game and it may also be considered a coup d’etat, a coup that is directed against Putin’s state.
In sum it means that coup in Russia is imminent. In either case of the coup for Russian citizens it will mean rapidly increasing possibilities of upheavals. Why? Because if Putin stays in power, he is inevitably going to show up more dictatorial inclinations. If he goes (or is made to leave) there is going to be an energetic reshuffle of power and wealth in Russia. Both processes are capable of evoking serious tectonic moves in the Russian society.