Russians set up an Abu Ghraib of their own in North Caucasus

At least that is what maverick Russian news agency Regnum reports http://www.regnum.ru/news/1018257.html (in Russian). In a special report, published Monday 23 June the agency publishes letters of terrorist suspects that were arrested after the attack in October 2005 in Nalchik, Kabardin-Balkaria.

The author of the letter describes the horrible ways in which he was treated in the police department, including electric shock, death squads, sexual violence, beatings, etc. These facts have been collected and filed in the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg. Number of the described characters died either while in detention or immediately after their release. Russian prosecutors found no evidence of exessive application of force.

Comparison of Nazi and Communists

Why Georgia and Russia are on the brink of war

The situation around Georgian-Russian relations is worrying. It appears both parties have certain incentives to go to war. After Russian president Putin practically proclaimed partial recognition Georgian breakaway republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in April, the Georgians stepped up efforts to put diplomatic pressure on Russia, Europeans and the US supported Georgia through statements, calling for restraint and talks. However, the situation might spark into an open conflict almost any time, as both Russians and Georgians have certain lucrative goals to achieve in a war in Abkhazia and/or South Ossetia.

Russians would like to teach a lesson to Georgians for being pro-western and too willing to join NATO. Through teaching a lesson to Georgians Russia would hope to obliquely teach the West and other FSU countries that harbour similar aspirations of joining NATO, namely and most importantly Ukraine. A victorious war would also reassure Russian influence in the Caucasus and perhaps even in Georgia, because in a war situtation Russians could more easily to stage a coup de etat in Georgia, if things go very well for them. If things go wrong and Russia loses, they will still get an oil price hike, because Baku-Ceynan pipeline will be endangered. So there is not much to lose, seemingly, especially as Russians believe Georgia is not a serious enemy to consider. There is still a possibility though, that if Russia loses out in Abkhazia and/or South Ossetia, it will destabilise the North Caucasus, because the guerilla separatists will perceive this as weakening Russia.

There are some oblique signs though on the Russians’ side that they are afraid of a conflict. They deployed ethnic Chechens in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, apparently they try to scare off the Georgians from attacking these territories by doing so. Russians are not prepared to let North Caucasian volunteers to go to war to South Caucasus, as they are afraid of dealing with these volunteers afterwards. At the same time Russians cannot afford any significant losses in ethnic Russian manpower, as it will not be received well in Russia. So the decision to be made is not simple and I am not sure it has been made. Also an open invasion of Russian troops will jeopardise Russia’s international standing, posing it as an agressor.

Georgia on its side hopes to receive support from the West enough that would allow it to keep Russians from openly invading Abkhazia and South Ossetia in unlimited numbers of the military. Then it could hope to defeat the small numbers of Russian troops in these regions and the local forces. It is unclear though, whether Russians will really abstain from open invasion. Also it is unclear how long the war(s) would take. Only a very short war would satisfy Georgians and their western allies, not a long, bloody, civil conflict. Georgians may have another possible incentive to go to war, they will hope, that Russians are not prepared to destabilise the situation close to the location where 2014 Olympic games are to be held.

Third parties like the West might be tempted to teach a lesson to the Russians through Georgians, but this is a very hazardous game, of course, with highly probable unforeseen complications, like restarting hostilities in other Caucasus regions like Nagorny Karabakh, oil prices hikes, reshuffle of the political map in the Caucasus. The West potentially has less to lose, than Russia and Russia has even less to lose than Georgia, and last of of all Abkhazia and South Ossetia will lose most of all, as their territories will be ruined again and people will die.

The tasks of the US Air Force

In an advertisement of the US Air Force they say, their task is to ensure that the potential threats have no place to hide, showing on the screen a Middle Eastern or an Asian town. It occured to me, that the Air Force is probably not exactly fit to look for the enemies in the populous towns, as shown on the screen, unless they bomb them indiscriminately or employ flies to spy on the people.

I was also facsinated with the construction “potential threats”. Anything can be attributed to being a potential threat, can’t it? Perhaps it would have been better to say actual threats or simply threats, otherwise anything and anyone in the world and in the US could be considered as a potential target of the US Air Force.

The scissors’ effect and other wonders at graduate school

As the school year is over, I try to assess the past year education and personality development-wise. In this case I tend to generalise and go beyond my particular school, I somewhat focus not on what I have learned, but on the educational process itself. There are some curious observations I made after listening to the professors and reading my academic readings for two consecutive semesters.

I noticed, that professors generally tend to talk more clearly, than they do writing. Perhaps this is because they talk for one audience and write for another. Another possibility is that they need to make things more complicated in writing, so that their colleagues do not regard them as simplets, while they need to make things more simple while talking to the students, so that they get positive feedback from them. These two trends cause the scissors’ effect or perhaps one could call it a duplex effect.

There is probably more than that in making simple things sound complicated. If things sound simple, professor may have no job to do, because everybody will understand them. However, when professor start turning the easily comprehensible items into seemingly difficult ones to grasp, then obviously s/he starts having a lot of job of explaining this complicated stuff to the students or general public.

This is not to say, that I did not learn much at school, I certainly did. Eg. before I was saying: “I think…” and then would go on to speak my opinion. But after the school year is over, I realized there is much more effective way of presenting one’s views. Now I say: “I have a model to explain this” and then go on and speak my opinion. Isn’t it much more scientific and credible way of expressing one’s views?

I promise myself to be more contientious student next year. I am trying to convince myself, it is very important.