Maine adopts resolution on the situation in North Caucasus

Maine adopts state resolution on North Caucasus

This is a copy of resolution on North Caucasus, Chechnya, Ingushetia that Maine has adopted. They call for reestablishing democratically elected governments in North Caucasus, peace promotion and stop isolating the region. 

I fully agree with all these and am happy to see a resolution like that. I hope North Caucasus will attract more attention from the US and rest of the world that will contribute to establishing peace, law & order in the region and help to develop the region.

The copy of the resolution taken from http://peaceinthecaucasus.org/PDF%20and%20Audio%20files/Chechnya__Maine_Resolution.pdf

 

Western security services are accused of an attempt to free Chechnya of Russian rule

22 April one of the principal Russian TV channels aired a program in which western security services were accused of an attempt to promote Chechnya’s secession from Russia. They mentioned US State Department involvement in the process. The program stated, that the western security services were supplying money for Chechen separatists and trying to legitimize them by supplying their own money and passports, that should have been printed in France and Germany, according to the authors.

However, in the program they apparently did not mention, that Chechen separatists tried to print their own passports and money in Britain. After several weeks the two people dispatched to London on this mission were found dead. The British firm involved in the deal withdrew from it following that for self-image preservations reasons. So it remains a question, whose security services did what.

There are many questions about Moscow apartments being blown up in 1999, that many analysts attributed to Russian security services. One can only imagine what these people could do in other parts of Russia or the world, if they did not hesitate to blow up apartments in Moscow.

The logic behind airing of the film could be that Russia continues to harden its relations with West, feeling, that it can afford it. Or Russian security services are trying to prove to the new Russian president and the public, that they are the one that have saved Russian territorial integrity. Or simply it is just another act that is called to prove that Russia is a “besieged fortress” and rally support of the public for the current leadership. In any case it is not exactly a positive sign. In my point of view the trend of relations between Russia and the West is going to further deteriorate regardless of the hopes put on the new enlightened leadership of Medvedev. That is what it shows.

Video footage of Russian airplane shooting down Georgian UAV

Russia: Examining Moscow’s Motives In Georgia’s Frozen Conflicts – RADIO FREE EUROPE / RADIO LIBERTY

An example of a biased article from RFE/RL. The relations between Russia on one side and Abkhazia and South Ossetia on the other side are much more complex, than described in the article. There were no “hundreds of thousands of Georgian refugees from Abkhazia and South Ossetia”, but approximately 200000-250000 from Abkhazia and 10000-15000 from South Ossetia. Number of Ossetian refugees, that were expelled from inner Georgia (not even from South Ossetia) was ca. 80000.

What RFE/RL doesn’t want to recognize is that matryoshka effect takes place here: it is of course Russian objective to use Abkhazia and South Ossetia to meddle in Georgian affairs, to undermine Georgian state and try to subdue the country, but on the other hand Georgia itself has oppressed its national minorities in rather nasty ways (not only the Abkhaz and Ossetians), including expulsion of large quantities Ossetian population in Georgia. It was not the Ossetians or the Abkhaz that attacked Georgians, it was the Georgians that came over to attack these tiny regions. Of course, Russia has played its role in all these events, why shouldn’t they have done so?

The West is overstretched nowadays, so it does not really want to get too deeply involved in these issues. At the same time, some kind of reaction is needed, as the Russians will advance their offensive even further, if no appropriate response is made. I only see one possibility – to speed up Georgia’s and Ukraine’s accession to NATO, to leave out Abkhazia and South Ossetia, invest in Georgia’s economic development and preferably play Russia into recognizing South Ossetia and Abkhazia, so that Russia could be reminded all the time about being an aggressor. Or else a lot of pressure should be applied to Russia in order to remove it from these regions and to deploy an international force. Few will agree to send in forces, simply because everyone understands, Russians will stir locals into a guerilla war, if Russians are to leave the region. So the best way of dealing with this issue, in my point of view is just to leave responsibility for these regions to Russia and capitalize on that.

Russia: Examining Moscow’s Motives In Georgia’s Frozen Conflicts

Russian peacekeepers in South Ossetia (file photo)

(epa)

The timing of Russia’s move this week to forge closer links with two Georgian separatist regions has raised more than a few eyebrows in Tbilisi and the West.

In explaining President Vladimir Putin’s decision, which calls for establishing  formal ties with businesses and organizations in the pro-Moscow breakaway provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Kamynin said the move “does not mean that Russia has chosen the course of confrontation” with Tbilisi.

Yet it comes just weeks after Georgia secured a pledge of eventual NATO membership during the alliance’s Bucharest summit, and shortly after Tbilisi proposed a new peace plan for Abkhazia.

The United States, the European Union, and NATO have joined Georgia in condemning the step, which some observers believe is part of an attempt to derail the South Caucasus nation’s attempt to join the Western alliance.

Russia: Examining Moscow’s Motives In Georgia’s Frozen Conflicts – RADIO FREE EUROPE / RADIO LIBERTY

Exiled Chechen War Reporter: Yuri Bagrov in New York City

A colleague and friend of mine, Yuri Bagrov, that worked as reporter with Radio Liberty/Free Europe and AP in Vladikavkaz, North Ossetia has been featured in NY Times.

“YURI BAGROV, a 32-year-old with a boyish face, a squished nose and long brown hair that flops around his shoulders, is a relatively new figure at RTVi, a Russian-language cable channel with a small studio on Hudson Street in TriBeCa. For years, Mr. Bagrov covered the separatist conflict in Chechnya, the war-ravaged republic on Russia’s southern border, for various news agencies. But in New York these days, his life is much quieter.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/20/nyregion/thecity/20russ.html?ex=1366344000&en=5be6ffda958901ac&ei=5124&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink

Georgia: new exciting times

The situation around Georgian breakaway republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia is rapidly changing. Russian president Putin asked Russian government to enhance the relations between Russia and Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Russians offer measures like recognition of Abkhaz and South Ossetian internal passports, enterprises, registered there, etc. – even though declared, they are yet to be outlined legally. This is practically partial recognition of these republics. At the same time Putin offered to ease visa restrictions for Georgians, open borders and start talks about readmission of Georgian good to the Russian market, both moves I must say are rather clever.

As Georgia is backed by the western countries (especially by the US) and Abkhazia and South Ossetia are openly backed by Russia, the situation seems to quickly assume the logic of a struggle between Russia and the West in the old-fashioned Cold War manner. 

Even though both the US and EU urge Russia to back off from supporting Abkhazia and South Ossetia, so far they don’t really seem to be ready for any firm action against Russia. Given the incentives for Georgia, they might also be rather mild in the opposition to these moves.

I think, if Russia implements what it has promised, the situation will change profoundly, but also I sense the degree of unpredictability of further developments in the region has greatly increased. Georgians might do something unthoughtful and violence might break out – that would be the worst scenario. Still rather nationalistic, I’m afraid, poor and weak country is being deprived of its breakaway regions. There is still a hope in Russia of course, that seeing this process, Georgian public will revolt and dismiss the current government and the country will abandon its pro-western choice. However, these plans in my point of view are doomed for failure. Russia seems to have started redrawing the borders in the Caucasus, which is going to affect large portions of the region in near future.

The West and most notably the US are in a difficult position: on the one hand, they would not mind to see the problem of Georgian breakaway regions being solved once and for all, on the other hand, this will demonstrate the US’s weakness in face of Russian moves, which will certainly affect the situation in the regions beyond the Caucasus as well. So the US cannot afford really not to react, as well, as do too much. 

What I am saying is basically that the situation might relatively easily spiral into a major stand off between Russia and the US (I don’t personally want to believe in this though). The trouble is that the US of course would not like to be used by Georgia as a proxy to regain their lost territories or to solve their problems (and run into a major loggerheads position with Russia), but also I hope the US realizes, that if Russia is somehow not contained, it will expand its ambitions and next time the choice might be even more difficult. 

Could there be an agreement between the US and Russia behind the scene? It doesn’t look to me highly likely, but one can expect from the Bush’s administration almost anything. However, more likely is that Russia thinks, that it is good time to flex its muscles, especially as after less than 3 weeks, Putin formally steps down from president’s position (and assumes PM’s role) and therefore his successor will not bear the responsibility for the latest moves.

first internet based Cold War

website www.radarix.com claims to be offering private information on all citizens of Russia, Ukraine and CIS countries. They say that only information on Putin and Medvedev is closed for public. The data includes various sensitive information like property, tax payments, criminal convictions, etc. It has a complicated way of registration, so I only applied for it and hopefully have access in the next several days or so, they say the website is overwhelmed by visitors.

It is relatively easy in Russia to buy data on large portions of population, however, this new web-project seems to be an entirely new way of approaching privacy issue. That is just dumping it altogether.

As the service is free and it certainly required a lot of investment: to buy bits and pieces of information and put them together, sustain them in a very secure environment, I assume there is political motif behind the project. I’m not sure whether it is CIA, disenfranchised Russian oligarchs like Berezovsky or insiders that were unhappy with Putin’s choice Medvedev, but it is certainly a very much politically charged move. It is especially sensible for the Russian bureaucracy, that thrives in the shadow of public attention, as Russian media is practically all under state control (i.e. essentially bureaucrats themselves).

It is a very creative move, I would say and I look forward to receiving my password for the website:) 

Putin 4ever

15 April Putin agreed to become head of the party United Russia that holds the qualified majority in the lower house of Russian parliament State’s Duma. He seems to be trying to assume as much power, as he possibly can, so everything that is left outside of president administration is carefully prepared to serve Putin.

This basically means soon or later there is going to be struggle between Putin and his successor Medvedev, which is good, at least there is going to be a dualist political model for the time being. I don’t think though, that the struggle is going to last for significant period of time. In a struggle that will be going mainly behind closed doors, outside of parliamentary discussions and laws, the battle is almost certain to be short and decisive.

Putin’s trademark is covertness, he cannot afford doing things in the open, that is also his weak point, because if Medvedev start appealing to people, all Putin’s might will wane in a few months. However, Medvedev is not terribly public politician as well, I’m not sure he is able to do that, he is going to use the same tactics of an “apparatchik” that Putin uses. And then we don’t know, who is going to win.

Putin certainly has more enemies than Medvedev, simply because he had time to cross many people’s ways, that might play against going president of Russia, but at the same time he is better connected so to say – he comes from security services, etc. One thing can be said for sure, things will become exciting in many ways over the next few months. 

Sadr no enemy of the United States | Video | Reuters.com

It is good to hear, that secretary of defense, Robert Gates indicates in his speech what I would describe as a sensible approach to the people like Muqtada al-Sadr in Iraq. If the US were not allying with those whose families were victims of Saddam’s regimes, then who would be the US’s allies in the region?

Al-Sadr is an extremely charismatic figure. One can recognise that even from his photographs. This guy clearly thinks he speaks with God, that is the impression I got from what they have shown of him. If it is true, he is going to be a difficult negotiator for the US, but, IMHO, it is certainly worth consistently trying to win the guy over.

from www.reuters.com posted with vodpod

Russia ready to confront the West over NATO enlargement

9 April Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said in an interview for Russian liberal radio-station Echo Moskvy: “We will do everything in order to prevent Ukraine and Georgia’s accession to NATO, to prevent unavoidable sharp deterioration of our relations with the alliance [NATO] and with its leading members and with our neighbours that is tied to the possibility of making that decision.” 

Well, what can I say. Clever Russian nationalists and statesmen (who are often the same) used to say that Russia is too weak to confront the West, so it should avoid open conflict and gather its strength in order to come back one day fully. Nowadays, I can see, that Russians do not deem it necessary to hide their ambitions any more. This is what happens when you engage in constant appeasement of imperialism infected countries.